okt 232020

Labor Market Recovery Continues, Adp Report Says 749,000 New Jobs This Month

The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 588,000 in October, essentially unchanged from the previous month. The world’s economy was shut down and much of America has stay at home orders. Jobless claims numbers have been records and unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to return to work. It was the first time China’s cabinet has targeted virtual currency mining, a sizable business in the world’s second-biggest economy that some estimates say accounts for as much as 70% of the global crypto supply. Cryptocurrency exchange Huobi on Monday suspended both crypto-mining and some trading services to new clients from mainland China, adding it will instead focus on overseas businesses.

  • Among the 11 major S&P sectors, technology advanced about 2% as the best performing on the session, as yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond hit a two-week low, which also buoyed other richly-valued growth stocks.
  • Private payrolls in the United States increased less than expected in October, providing an early sign of a slowdown in economic activity as fiscal stimulus diminishes and new COVID-19 infections surge across the country.
  • In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 4 cents to $29.50.
  • Large employers added the bulk of the September gains, ADP said, adding 297,000 workers to their overall payrolls.

These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic. Natural Resources/mining and construction gained 7,000 and 60,000 jobs, respectfully. The non-farm private sector added 749,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

Private Sector Employment Increased By 365,000 Jobs

This is higher for Blacks, with the share for young Black men being about 30 percent. The BLS’s current methodology effectively assumes that, with adjustment for various characteristics, people who are not included in a follow-up survey may not differ systematically from those who are included. The present paper, however, provides evidence that this may not be the case. Our analysis suggests that people are considerably more likely to be missing in a subsequent observation if they are unemployed or not in the labor force in the prior observation. We also estimate what the real labor market outcomes might have been when adjusting for nonresponse and undercoverage. Findings indicate that the current methodology may underestimate the national unemployment and labor force participation rates by about 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.

Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 79,000 in October but is down by 950,000 since February. In October, health care employment increased by 58,000, with the largest gains occurring in hospitals (+16,000), offices of physicians (+14,000), offices of dentists (+11,000), and outpatient care centers (+10,000). These ledger account increases were partially offset by a decline of 9,000 in nursing and residential care facilities. While the data is typically a good indicator of what to expect in the more closely watched jobs report from the Labor Department, the ADP figure has regularly missed the government’s count since the pandemic began in mid-March.

Franchise restaurants added 6,400 jobs and accommodations franchises added 3,100 jobs. Those figures are particularly uplifting as those are two business sectors hit particularly hard by the pandemic response across the country. Transportation companies announced the third-highest total for the month with 11,475 cuts, as airlines grapple with reduced travel and lower revenue. This sector has announced 159,674 cuts in the first ten months of 2020, a 530% increase from the 25,341 announced in the same period last year.

Small- and medium-sized businesses brought back 192,000 and 259,000, respectively. Some 97 million new jobs could be created, but the public and private sectors must do more to prepare workers for them. Though it has fallen short of the government’s private payrolls count since May because of methodology differences, it is still watched for clues on the labour market’s health. To be sure, the country’s economic measures continue to offer mixed results. Earlier this week, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that property values rose 3.9 percent in July. But the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly applications index posted its biggest drop in a month on Wednesday, falling 4.8 percent. TweetShareShareShareEmailTwo new reports show that the U.S. job market continued to slowly recover in September, although small businesses reported only small gains.


In September, the majority of sectors and company sizes experienced gains with trade, transportation and utilities; and manufacturing leading the way. However, small businesses continued to demonstrate slower growth,” says Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The labor market continues to recover gradually,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “In September, the majority of sectors and company sizes experienced gains with trade, transportation and utilities; and manufacturing leading the way. “The labor market continues to recover gradually,” Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said in a statement. “The labor market continues to recover gradually,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

There were also increases in exports of telecommunications equipment, industrial engines and computer accessories. Paychex said the Northeast region’s small business hiring came in a little stronger than average, rising 0.36 percent for September. On the lagging side, the Financial Activities industry only took on 29,000 new people, while the Information sector hired 17,000 people and the Natural Resources and Mining grew by only 7,000. Last week, more than 125economistssigned a letter to U.S. lawmakers pleading for new stimulus funds and calling the situation urgent. The economists emphasized how the pandemic has been especially hard on women and low-wage workers.

Over-the-month job gains occurred in finance and insurance (+17,000) and real estate (+10,000). A decrease of 138,000 in federal government was driven by a loss of 147,000 temporary 2020 Census workers. Job losses also occurred in local government education and state government education (-98,000 and -61,000, respectively). Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, and information, changed little in October. The unemployment rate is expected to fall two-tenths of a percentage point to 7.7%. However, the gains only make up for a little more than half the 22 million positions lost in the first two months of the pandemic.

Job growth was noted in all the sectors included in ADP’s monthly reports. According to the September ADP Small Business Report, companies with 49 or fewer employees added 192,000 jobs from August to September. The economic recovery continues and small businesses are definitely part of it. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 17 stood at 21,508,662 versus 1,444,923 in the same period a year ago.

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank reported that manufacturing activity in its district expanded in September at the fastest pace since November 2018, mirroring other regional surveys. After expanding at the fastest pace since November 2018 in August, the ISM® Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® slowed somewhat in September, down from 56.0 to 55.4. New orders and production expanded solidly despite some easing, but employment remained negative and raw material prices accelerated. The international trade deficit narrowed to $63.9 billion in September from a revised $67.0 billion in August, first reported as a $67.1 billion shortfall, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Private payrolls increased by 365,000 in October, after climbing a revised 753,000 in September, initially reported as a 749,000 jump, ADP said Wednesday.

Labor Market Recovery Continues, Adp Report Says 749,000 New Jobs This Month

Small businesses with one to 19 people on staff added 60,000 positions, which drove the increases in the leisure and hospitality sector. “While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 460,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S. Small businesses have struggled mightily throughout the pandemic as the persistence of the coronavirus prevents the economy from fully reopening. Smaller firms typically lack the savings and access to credit enjoyed by larger businesses and often run on much thinner profit margins. He pointed to the halting pace of businesses reopening during the pandemic, the inability of Congress to pass further stimulus legislation, the discontinuation of the Paycheck Protection Program, and the uncertainty surrounding the election.

If Econintersect used employment/population ratios to determine the number, the exact number seems to be between 140,000 and 160,000. The graph below uses the historical employment-population ratios to show jobs growth per month if the population was 300 million. Employment is a rearview indicator, and looking at this ADP data – the overall trend for the year-over-year rate of growth has been disrupted by the coronavirus. Private-sector employment grew by 749,000 jobs from August to September, according to Roseland-based human resources and payroll company ADP. Singapore’s competition authority has approved the London Stock Exchange Group’s $27 billion acquisition of data and analytics company Refinitiv provided the bourse continues to offer certain foreign exchange benchmarks to rivals. Boeing said it expects to cut 30,000 jobs by the end of 2021, as the coronavirus pandemic guts global airline travel. A separate report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed the trade deficit fell 4.7 percent to $63.9bn in September as food exports jumped to the highest level since July 2012, boosted by shipments of soybeans.

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An Employment Index above 50.8%, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data on manufacturing employment. The nation’s procurement executives who keep a close watch on the economy each month reported on October 1 that the manufacturing sector grew in September for the fifth consecutive month. The service-providing sector added 552,000 jobs in August with the jobs coming from the trade/transportation/utilities , healthcare/social assistance and professional/business services sectors. Earlier in the week, the September ADP National Employment Report reported that private-sector employment increased by 749,000 jobs from August to September. Several large employers, however, have recently warned of or made, job cuts. United and American Airlines sent furlough notices to 32,000 employees on Wednesday after federal COVID aid expired, and Royal Dutch Shell said it planned to cut between 7,000 and 9,000 jobs by the end of 2022. Trade, transportation, and utilities companies added the most jobs nationwide, 186,000.

The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, and monthly GDP comes close to October 2010 levels. Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by the Bloomberg survey is for a slight increase of 182K. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Federal government spending rose an annualized 16.4% in the second quarter, reflecting the uptick in transfer payments and adding 1.17% to real GDP growth. In contrast, state and local government spending dropped 5.4% at the annual rate, subtracting 0.40% from top-line growth.

Labor Market Recovery Continues, Adp Report Says 749,000 New Jobs This Month

U.S. private sector employers added nearly three quarters of a million new jobs in September, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday, possibly setting up a stronger-than-expected reading of non-farm payrolls later this week. Sustaining the economic rebound depends on the extent to which the government controls the spread of the coronavirus and also on whether lawmakers break their logjam over passing additional government aid. Virus fatalities in the U.S. surpassed 200,000 this month, and Walt Disney Co.’s announcement Tuesday that it’s slashing 28,000 workers in its resort business points to persistent problems for travel and tourism firms as long as the pandemic rages.

The Herald report revealed that the management of Ocean Reef Club told residents that day that more than 1,200 seniors had been vaccinated over the previous two weeks. In all, 17 Ocean Reef residents had donated $5,000 each to the governor’s political committee through December 2020, the Herald reported using state records. A month after the vaccinations Ocean Reef resident Bruce Rauner, the former Republican governor of Illinois, wrote DeSantis’ political committee a $250,000 check. Net exports added 0.62% to top-line growth in the second quarter, contributing positively to real GDP for four consecutive quarters. However, that masks the true story, which reflects a massive decline in trade volumes in the quarter. Goods exports and imports plummeted 66.8% and 49.6% at annual rates in the second quarter, respectively.

The youngest was 27 months old, had mild symptoms in July, tested positive, made a seemingly full recovery but developed darkened skin patches and extreme toe pains. According to the ADP National Employment Report, franchise employment grew in August by 20,700 jobs. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index registered 55.4%, which is down slightly from 56.0% in August, marking PMI’s highest level of expansion since November 2018. Readings above 50% indicated expansion in manufacturing while readings above 42.8%, over time, indicate expansion in the overall economy.

The ADP’s national employment report show U.S. employment grew by 749,000 in September, a figure that came in well ahead of the Street consensus forecast of 650,000 and was also firmly in front of last month’s upwardly-revised tally of 481,000. ADP’s payroll data represents firms employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S.

It is the highest year-to-date total for the industry since 2016, when 103,147 cuts were announced through October. Entertainment/Leisure 14,876, but the lowest monthly total since 1,344 cuts were announced in the sector in February. Through October, Entertainment/Leisure companies have announced 845,954 cuts, up 6,773% from the 12,308 announced in the same period last year. Goods producing added 17,000 jobs, construction and manufacturing each added 7,000, natural resources and mining rose 3,000. Employment in Labor Market Recovery Continues, Adp Report Says 749,000 New Jobs This Month leisure and hospitality increased by 271,000 in October, with gains in food services and drinking places (+192,000); arts, entertainment, and recreation (+44,000); and accommodation (+34,000). The concern is that job creation could slow again amid uncertainty with a Biden election and a rise in Covid-19 cases, which increased by 102,831 on Thursday to bring the pandemic total to over 9.4 million, according to the Covid Tracking Project. More than 224,000 Americans have died from the virus and its complications.

The smallest of the small businesses are contributing to much of the job growth. According to ADP’s figures, companies with less than 20 employees added 121,000 jobs from August to September. While this number is down considerably from June, when small businesses added nearly a million jobs in a single month, it’s still a strong total and shows that the economic recovery from the COVID pandemic is still well underway. The world’s economy as shut down and much of America has stay at home orders. Jobless claims numbers have been records and unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to file.

Labor Market Recovery Continues, Adp Report Says 749,000 New Jobs This Month

The goods-producing sector added 196,000 jobs to the economy, led by a boost in manufacturing of 130,000 jobs. Construction created income summary 60,000, with natural resource/mining growing by 7,000. The ADP National Employment Report also shows some really positive signs.

Total U S. Nonfarm Private Employment:     749,000

This is yet another sign that the labor market remains highly challenged and elevated, even as the unemployment rate improved to the best reading since February. U.S. private employers hired at a faster-than-expected pace in September, created 749,000 new jobs last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday.

Author: Randy Johnston

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